Centaur measured more than 13,000 positions opened on X and Telegram from January to August 2026. Telegram trades crypto, X trades everything, and crypto channels calling stocks fared worst.
Centaur · Research
October 29, 2026 · 2 min read
Centaur is well placed to answer this, having built the most comprehensive X and Telegram trading dataset.
It measured every position opened across its trader universe, c. 300 traders and more than 13,000 positions, from January to August 2026. Here is what the data says about where to rely on which source, including the move that cost Telegram followers the most: crypto channels pivoting to stock picks.
Share of positions by asset class, January to August 2026. Telegram: 94% crypto. X: 64% equities, 28% crypto.
Telegram channels are mostly focused on crypto: 94% of their positions are in crypto. The X traders Centaur tracks are more balanced, with about two thirds of trades in equities and only about a quarter in crypto.
Average 30-day return per position within each asset class. X equities were the only large positive book; crypto was negative on both sources. (pos = win rate)
Crypto has bled this year, but it bled roughly three points harder per position on Telegram. X equity traders, meanwhile, made +3.3% per position with a majority of positions profitable.
Majors are at parity across sources; the Telegram gap is concentrated in alts.
On majors, the two sources are near parity. Most of the Telegram underperformance lives in the alt book. Telegram channels hold three quarters of their crypto positions in alts, against half for X traders. It is safe to assume they are simply going deeper along the risk spectrum, which means all their positions are hit harder during a down year.
Here is the interesting finding. As equities took over perp DEXs, crypto-trained Telegram channels started calling stocks. It went poorly. Telegram traders whose book is majority crypto averaged -4.3% per position on their equity calls, even worse than their own crypto book and roughly 8 points worse than X traders or equities-first Telegram channels. Domain expertise did not transfer.
Average 30-day return per position on equity calls. Crypto-first Telegram channels: -4.3%. Equities-first Telegram traders: +4.2%. X: +3.3%. (pos = win rate)
The difference is striking. Hope you are not getting your stock picks from crypto traders.
